原标题：专家：日本近700年后恐只剩下一个儿童

（观察者网讯）日本社会少子化现象日趋严重，该国学者吉田浩发布的最新版“儿童人口时钟”将时限定为2720年，意味着696年后日本将只剩下一个儿童。此人口钟的设计灵感来源于美国“末日时钟”，意在警醒日本民众认识到少子化问题的严重性和迫切性。

据日本读卖新闻4日的报道，日本东北大学老龄化经济学教授吉田浩近日指出，截至今年4月1日，日本15岁以下儿童人数为1401万，较去年减少了33.6万人，年减少率为2.3%。按此速度发展，在696年后的2720年1月5日，日本将只会剩下一名未满15岁的儿童。

报道称，2023年版本的“儿童人口时钟”将时限定在798年后的2821年10月27日，今年的最新人口钟则提前了约100年。

最新版日本“儿童人口时钟”数据显示，2720年1月5日，日本将只剩下一个孩子（6日截图）

最新预测的结果受到“2023年日本新生儿数量连续第8年下降”的影响，目前日本的总和生育率为1.26，远低于维持人口稳定所需的2.07。

吉田浩指出，长期经济不景气导致日本年轻人因收入低而难以结婚和生育。他强调，需要改善育儿环境，减轻育儿负担，如儿童医疗费和午餐费的免费化、推广男性育婴假等。他还提议改革制度，允许父母享有3到5年的育儿假。

他警告说，如果生育数下降趋势不能扭转，儿童人口时钟的指针将不会回转，“日本可能成为第一个因少子化而灭绝的国家。”

日本总务省4日公布的人口推算数据显示，截至4月1日，包括常驻外国人在内，日本不满15岁的儿童人口为1401万，同比减少33万；日本儿童人口占总人口比例为11.3%，同比下降0.2个百分点，均创1950年有统计以来最低纪录。

数据显示，日本儿童人口自1982年以来连续43年减少。从性别来看，日本男孩约718万人，女孩约683万人。截至去年10月1日，日本全部47个都道府县的儿童人口数量均同比减少。仅东京和神奈川县儿童人口数量超过100万。

另据联合国人口统计年鉴，虽然各国人口推算截止时间不同，但在全球人口超过4000万的37个国家中，日本儿童人口占总人口比例位列倒数第二，仅高于韩国。

责任编辑：钟庆辉 UN660

新闻译文：

Original title: Expert: Japan may only have one child left after nearly 700 years

(Observer Network News) The phenomenon of declining birth rates in Japanese society is becoming increasingly serious. The latest version of the "Child Population Clock" released by scholar Hiroshi Yoshida limits the time to 2720 years, meaning that Japan will only have one child left after 696 years. The design inspiration for this person's mouth clock comes from the "Doomsday Clock" in the United States, aimed at alerting the Japanese people to the seriousness and urgency of the problem of declining birth rates.

According to a report by Yomiuri Shimbun on the 4th, Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor of aging economics at Tohoku University in Japan, recently pointed out that as of April 1st this year, the number of children under the age of 15 in Japan was 14.01 million, a decrease of 336000 from last year, with an annual decrease rate of 2.3%. At this rate of development, on January 5, 2720, 696 years later, Japan will only have one child under the age of 15 remaining.

According to reports, the 2023 version of the "Children's Population Clock" will be limited to October 27, 2821, 798 years later, and this year's latest population clock has been advanced by about 100 years.

The latest version of Japan's "Child Population Clock" data shows that on January 5, 2720, Japan will only have one child left (screenshot from the 6th)

The latest forecast is affected by the eighth consecutive year of decline in the number of newborns in Japan in 2023. Currently, Japan's total fertility rate is 1.26, far below the 2.07 required to maintain population stability.

Yoshida Hiroshi pointed out that the long-term economic downturn has made it difficult for young people in Japan to get married and have children due to low incomes. He emphasized the need to improve the childcare environment, reduce the burden of childcare, such as free medical and lunch expenses for children, and promote male parental leave. He also proposed reforming the system to allow parents to enjoy 3 to 5 years of parental leave.

He warned that if the declining trend in fertility cannot be reversed, the hands of the child population clock will not turn, and "Japan may become the first country to become extinct due to declining birth rates."

According to the population calculation data released by the Japanese Ministry of General Affairs on April 4th, as of April 1st, including permanent foreigners, the population of children under the age of 15 in Japan was 14.01 million, a year-on-year decrease of 330000; The proportion of children in Japan's total population is 11.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points, both setting the lowest record since statistics began in 1950.

Data shows that the child population in Japan has been decreasing for 43 consecutive years since 1982. From a gender perspective, there are approximately 7.18 million Japanese boys and 6.83 million girls. As of October 1st last year, the number of children in all 47 prefectures in Japan has decreased year-on-year. The population of children in Tokyo and Kanagawa prefectures alone exceeds one million.

According to the United Nations Population Statistics Yearbook, although the cutoff time for population estimation varies among countries, Japan ranks second to last in terms of the proportion of children in the total population among the 37 countries with a global population of over 40 million, only higher than South Korea.

Responsible editor: Zhong Qinghui UN660

重点词汇

• 观察者 observer ; viewer

• 意味着 mean ; imply ; represent ; signify ; purport

• 来源于 originate ; stem from ; root in

• 警醒 Alert ; be a light sleeper ; egersis

• 认识到 realize ; understand ; learn ; know ; discover ; catch on ; sensible ; apprehend ; suss

• 严重性 seriousness ; gravity ; enormity

• 迫切性 urgency ; immediacy

• 东北大学 Northeastern University

• 老龄化 age (of a society)

• 减少率 Reduction rate ; Decrease Rate ; URR

句子成分分析：

He warned | that if the declining trend (in fertility) cannot be reversed, || the hands (of the child population clock) 

will not turn, || and "Japan may become the first country to become extinct [due to declining birth rates]."

句子语法结构详解：

(cannot = can not)

* warned 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* if 为连词，引导条件状语从句。
* declining 为动名词，与 trend 构成合成名词。
* reversed 为谓语，采用被动语态。
* 第2个 the 开头为陈述句。
* turn 为谓语，采用一般将来时。
* and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* 第1个 become 为系动词作谓语。
* country 为名词作表语。
* to become 为不定式，作后置定语。
* 第2个 become 为系动词。
* extinct 为形容词作表语。
* 第2个 declining 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* can, will, may 为情态动词。he 为人称代词主格。be 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子成分分析：

Yoshida Hiroshi pointed out | that the long-term economic downturn has made it difficult for young people (in Japan) 

to get married and have children [due to low incomes].

句子语法结构详解：

(made 为 make 的过去分词。children 为 child 的复数形式。)

* pointed 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* made 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* it 为先行形式宾语，代表后移的不定式
* difficult 为形容词作宾语补足语(即构成复合宾语)。
* for young people in Japan to get 为不定式。for young people in Japan 为不定式的逻辑主语。
* get 为系动词。
* married 为形容词作表语。
* have 为不带 to 的不定式。
* has 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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